Category Special Reports

Global public debt is projected to surpass $100 trillion this year, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to approach 100% by the end of the decade, surpassing the levels seen during the pandemic. This warning was delivered by Vítor Gaspar, Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, during a briefing in Washington.

Gaspar emphasized that public deficits and debt levels are alarmingly high, with risks continuing to rise. Presenting the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, he outlined that one-third of countries, including major economies such as China, the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, are experiencing public debt growth at a faster rate than before the pandemic. These countries collectively represent around 70% of global GDP.

He further explained that in another third of countries, while public debt has increased, its growth is projected to slow or even decline compared to pre-pandemic trends. In the remaining nations, public debt levels are currently lower than they were prior to the pandemic.

The IMF report highlights that the risks surrounding public debt forecasts are tilted upwards. In a particularly adverse scenario, global public debt could rise by an additional 20 percentage points of GDP compared to the baseline forecast.

Gaspar also pointed out that the fiscal policies currently implemented by most governments are inadequate for stabilizing or reducing debt ratios. He stressed that delaying necessary adjustments would be both costly and risky, urging immediate action to address the growing fiscal challenges. He remarked that while monetary policy in major economies has already begun to ease and unemployment remains low in many countries, the time is right to implement gradual, sustained, and people-focused fiscal adjustments.

Additionally, the IMF’s projections for Ukraine indicate that by 2025, the country’s government debt will exceed 100% of its GDP for the first time, with debt levels unlikely to drop below this threshold in the near future.

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Living paycheck to paycheck might typically bring to mind lower-income households, yet recent data shows that around 20% of US households earning over $150,000 a year are also in this position. This finding comes from a new Bank of America analysis, which examined anonymized banking accounts and spending habits of US customers.

In the analysis, paycheck-to-paycheck living is defined as households allocating more than 95% of their income to essential costs like gas, food, utilities, internet, public transportation, child care, and housing. While lower-income households saw the highest proportion—approximately 35% of those earning below $50,000 annually—experiencing this strain, even at income levels above $150,000, the share remains significant.

It’s typically assumed that higher-income households would have more disposable income, yet several factors counter this expectation. According to the analysis, many higher-income earners may have purchased larger homes with substantial mortgages, leading to higher insurance, property tax, and utility expenses. Bank of America Institute’s senior economist David Tinsley also noted that some may take on larger mortgages in anticipation of future raises or promotions, while others with young children may face temporary spikes in essential spending, such as child care, that may decrease as children age.

Tinsley’s team noted that all spending toward child care was classified as a necessity, regardless of whether the spending went to a standard or elite preschool. The analysis reflects the financial pressures inflation continues to place across income brackets, even as the pace of price increases has eased over the past two years. Still, Americans are now paying approximately 20% more than before the pandemic in early 2020.

Simultaneously, wage growth has decelerated. Data from the Labor Department show that while average hourly wages rose 4% year-over-year in September, this rate was lower than two years prior when wage increases exceeded 5%.

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Oxfam has raised urgent concerns regarding the carbon emissions produced by the world’s wealthiest individuals, drawing attention to significant disparities in emission levels and suggesting that the ultra-wealthy’s climate actions could encourage broader societal acceptance of essential climate reforms.

In its October 28 report, Oxfam emphasized that if global carbon emissions mirrored those from the luxury transport of the 50 wealthiest billionaires, the remaining global carbon budget would deplete in just two days. Oxfam, an organization committed to combating inequality and poverty, identified these top billionaires as major contributors to the climate crisis. According to the report, a single billionaire among this elite group emits approximately 7,746 tons of CO₂ annually from private jet and yacht usage, while an individual from the world’s poorest 50% emits just 1.01 tons each year.

The findings are detailed in the report, Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All, which relies on data from researchers at Concordia University, Dartmouth College, Stanford University, and the Stockholm Environment Institute. The referenced “carbon budget” outlines the maximum CO₂ equivalent that can be released without surpassing a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures.

Oxfam’s report highlighted specific carbon footprints of prominent billionaires, estimating Elon Musk’s emissions at 5,947 tons of CO₂ annually—equivalent to 834 years of emissions for the global average individual or 5,437 years for someone in the lowest 50% income bracket.

Climate activists have long monitored billionaires’ private travel habits to estimate associated emissions. Bernard Arnault, chairman of luxury conglomerate LVMH, notably faced scrutiny when his jet was tracked by the Instagram account @laviondebernard, prompting him to sell it in 2022. Arnault then stated that he now rents private jets, which Oxfam criticized as a strategy to “evade accountability for climate impact.”

Superyachts also featured prominently in the report, with Oxfam noting that these high-emission vessels receive less attention than private jets. The number of superyachts has doubled since 2000, with approximately 150 launched each year. Oxfam calculated that a single superyacht emits an average of 5,672 tons of CO₂ per year, more than triple the emissions of a billionaire’s private jet.

The report called for a reduction in the disparity between the wealthiest and the rest of the world, arguing that substantial and sustained changes could address both climate change and social justice. Oxfam urged governments to set a global goal to significantly reduce inequalities between the Global North and South, stating that although cutting emissions from billionaires alone won’t fully resolve climate change, such efforts could support widespread public endorsement of comprehensive reforms.

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Washington, D.C. has long faced criticism as a potential tech hub, dismissed as too steeped in government culture—risk-averse, slow-paced, and lacking a focus on profitability. However, over the past 15 years, the city’s landscape has shifted as technology innovation spread beyond Silicon Valley, and D.C.’s economy experienced substantial growth.

Today, the D.C. metro area boasts four of the ten wealthiest counties in the United States, including the top two, Falls Church and Loudoun County. Meanwhile, government influence has evolved: while the democratic system has weakened, regulatory power controlled by large corporations has intensified. Examining Washington D.C.’s ecosystem, part of a broader series on legacy and second-tier cities reveals a growing tech scene fueled by suburban affluence and shaped by this new regulatory landscape.

Recent data from Pitchbook ranks Washington, D.C., as the fifth most significant startup hub in the U.S., surpassing Austin and Seattle but trailing Silicon Valley, New York, Los Angeles, and Boston. D.C.’s notable tech unicorns include ID.me and Rebellion Defense, a military software provider, underscoring the city’s unique industry focus.

Venture firm K Street Capital has contributed to this growth, managing a $15 million venture fund and a $25 million fund of funds, with investments in companies like ID.me. Managing Partner Paige Soya, a former founder turned investor, notes an ongoing debate over whether D.C. has achieved “tier-one” city status while acknowledging the city’s clear upward trajectory.

Soya observed that the government plays an increasingly pivotal role in multiple sectors. K Street Capital’s strength lies in assisting smaller firms in gaining traction within heavily regulated fields often dominated by large corporations. She highlighted national security, finance, and public affairs as industries where proximity to D.C. or strong connections to the city offer significant advantages for startups navigating complex regulatory landscapes.

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The economic future may rest in the ocean, where a range of profitable opportunities, from tourism to energy, are emerging. However, the blue economy and the ocean itself are increasingly threatened by climate change, and without strong government intervention, these issues may intensify. At the same time, the ocean could be a vital factor in combating the climate crisis, provided effective conservation practices are established.

The World Bank defines the blue economy as “the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health.” According to the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, it encompasses industries such as maritime shipping, fishing, aquaculture, coastal tourism, renewable energy, water desalination, undersea cabling, seabed mining, and marine biotechnology. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that the global blue economy currently contributes around $1.5 trillion annually and supports over 30 million jobs, with projections to reach $3 trillion by 2030.

In the United States, the blue economy contributed $476 billion to the nation’s GDP in 2022, equating to nearly 2% of the economy, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It generated $777 billion in sales and supported 2.4 million jobs, underscoring its importance, especially in coastal communities where 127 million people—or 40% of the U.S. population—reside. The U.S. blue economy is driven by three core pillars: the ocean’s economic contributions, environmental sustainability, and growth potential for all economies. Governments, including the U.S., are therefore keen to leverage the ocean for economic purposes while also safeguarding it from climate-related threats.

Ocean governance presents its own complexities. The Grantham Research Institute described the governance of the ocean and blue economy as both intricate and challenging to implement, leading to fragmented approaches among nations in sharing marine resources and assessing the environmental impacts of ocean-based industries. The United Nations emphasized that a sustainable blue economy must prioritize human well-being and justice. Many of those most affected by unsustainable ocean practices lack representation to voice their needs and rights and are unable to contribute directly to solutions.

With climate change raising ocean temperatures, protective measures are increasingly urgent. One of the most significant advancements in ocean governance is the U.N. High Seas Treaty, passed in 2023, which established cross-border conservation goals.

In the U.S., the New Blue Economy initiative aims to advance data collection to support sustainable blue economy growth. According to NOAA, this initiative seeks to enhance economic development, protect ocean health, and address societal challenges by improving ocean-derived data collection, analysis, and dissemination, while ensuring social equity.

For the blue economy to remain viable, a balance must be struck. The ocean is one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, capturing significant amounts of atmospheric carbon. However, industries such as seabed and deep-sea mining can harm the ocean’s carbon absorption capacity, exacerbating climate change. Enhancing the blue economy will thus require balancing economic growth with environmental protection.

The Grantham Research Institute highlighted the ocean’s critical role in regulating Earth’s temperature, absorbing carbon dioxide, and supporting biodiversity and livelihoods. However, it noted that only recently has the broader impact of the blue economy on climate change come into full view.

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As the 2024 APEC Economic Leaders’ Week begins, global attention centers on Peru, where President Dina Boluarte is set to welcome leaders from APEC’s 21 member economies in Lima. Under the theme “Empower. Include. Grow,” senior officials, ministers, and heads of state will address critical challenges affecting the Asia-Pacific region, including climate change, sustainable energy, digital economic transitions, and trade facilitation. These discussions aim to identify policies that will not only address current issues but also foster innovation and inclusivity across the region.

The forum’s primary focus areas include:

1. Trade and Investment for Inclusive Growth: Creating conditions to make trade more open, equitable, transparent, and inclusive, fostering interconnected growth.
2. Innovation and Digitalization for a Global Economy: Leveraging digital tools to support vulnerable groups as they transition from informal to formal economic participation.
3. Sustainable Growth for Resilient Development: Promoting a fair energy transition by advancing renewable energy initiatives and strengthening food security.

Ambassador Carlos Vasquez, Chair of the 2024 APEC Senior Officials, emphasized Peru’s unique role as host in steering the dialogue toward sustainability, resilience, and digital inclusion. He highlighted that hosting APEC reaffirms Peru’s dedication to enhancing multilateral partnerships and positions the nation as a key influence in the Asia-Pacific’s agenda-setting.

Vasquez noted that APEC’s work in promoting both trade and investment and in pushing a growth-focused agenda is gaining momentum. He observed that APEC member economies are increasingly aligning on new economic norms and policies to drive inclusiveness and support impactful programs that address the region’s needs.

APEC’s collaborative focus on resilience and sustainable growth paves the way for meaningful outcomes set to benefit the Asia-Pacific’s three billion residents. Dr. Rebecca Sta Maria, executive director of the APEC Secretariat, underscored the need for a comprehensive approach, reminding that the interconnected nature of APEC economies requires holistic attention to each aspect of their economic frameworks.

Under President Boluarte’s leadership, the week will culminate in the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting on November 15-16, where member economies will establish guidelines for future cooperation. This meeting follows the APEC Ministerial Meeting on November 14, co-chaired by Foreign Affairs Minister Elmer Schialer and Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister Desilú León.

Indigenous perspectives will also play a role, with ministers scheduled to meet with Indigenous representatives on November 13 to discuss inclusive growth and economic empowerment. Meanwhile, APEC senior officials will convene on November 11-12 to finalize initiatives for trade and growth and to outline a framework for joint policy development. The APEC Policy Support Unit will release its latest Regional Trends Analysis report on November 12, which will provide the foundation for the week’s discussions.

The business sector is actively involved as well. The 2024 APEC CEO Summit, organized by the private sector, will facilitate open dialogue between regional leaders and business executives on November 14-15. Additionally, the APEC Business Advisory Council will meet from November 10-12 and will hold a session with APEC leaders on November 15. The APEC Small and Medium Enterprise Summit on November 13 will focus on addressing the unique challenges and opportunities faced by SMEs.

Hosting APEC for the third time, following 2008 and 2016, Peru has organized over 270 working meetings throughout 2024 in cities including Lima, Arequipa, Pucallpa, Trujillo, and Urubamba. Each meeting has contributed deliverables or key documents that reflect a consensus among APEC’s 21 member economies and help establish the framework for the forum’s ongoing agenda.

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In Moldova’s recent presidential election and referendum on joining the European Union, the importance of robust voter turnout and protection against malign influences was driven home. Serving with the International Republican Institute’s international election observation mission, I joined a diverse team of 34 observers from seven countries, united in ensuring a fair election process. The international delegation was co-led by six-term U.S. Congressman Peter Roskam and former European Union Commissioner and United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Danuta Hübner.

The experience was a lesson in the meticulous operations required for election integrity and how critical voter turnout and vigilance are to safeguard democracy, especially against external interference in democracies worldwide.

Traveling across Moldova’s southern region, visiting 13 polling stations from small villages to larger cities, I witnessed the profound sense of duty and patriotism Moldovan citizens bring to the process. Poll workers, beginning their day at 7 AM, stood solemnly as the national anthem played. Later that night, I watched as votes were carefully counted by hand, with ballots securely transferred under police guard to central election authorities. The process reinforced the value of accuracy, transparency, and integrity in an election system.

I also learned threats to democracy do not wait for election day; they begin well in advance.

Moldova, sharing borders with Ukraine and Romania, was the target of malign influences, particularly from Russia.  Roskam noted: “Moldovans demonstrated resilience in the face of unprecedented foreign interference…Undeniably, the greatest threat to Moldova’s electoral integrity is malign foreign influence from the Russian Federation.”

Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of interfering in the election by spending $15 million on propaganda, cyberattacks, provocateurs, and outright vote-buying, with operatives allegedly purchasing up to 300,000 votes to destabilize Moldova’s shift toward closer EU ties.

In this context, Moldova’s election exemplifies the urgent need for countries worldwide to remain vigilant and proactively safeguard their electoral processes through transparency, a vital foundation of democratic elections.

For instance, Moldova’s requirement for voter identification with both address verification and photo ID, centralized to avoid duplicate voting, helped counter potential manipulation. Making voting accessible to citizens living and traveling is equally critical. Observing these practices in action reminded me of the importance of maintaining comprehensive, accurate voter rolls and requiring identification to reinforce legitimacy and trust in the results.

Danuta Hübner, former EU Commissioner and United Nations Deputy Secretary-General commented that while Moldova’s preliminary results had been declared, the real work of protecting democratic institutions was ongoing. “Elections are fundamental for democracy,” Hübner emphasized, “but democracy cannot survive on elections alone.” Her words serve as a reminder that democratic vigilance cannot be limited to single days; it must be a sustained effort, requiring engaged citizens and committed reforms to reinforce electoral integrity.

Democracy is more than a vote. It’s a commitment shared by citizens, poll workers, and the wider community to protect each other’s right to a free, fair, and transparent process. Moldova’s election experience, marred by interference but ultimately upheld by those who believe in democratic principles, should serve as an example for democracies everywhere: ensuring high turnout and protecting the electoral process are indispensable duties.

The Moldovan people deeply grasp this concept. Although the referendum to amend the constitution for EU entry passed by a narrow margin, President Sandu now faces a November 3 runoff against pro-Russian candidates.

In a world where malign actors seek to exploit every vulnerability, voter engagement, transparency, and resilience must be job one for any democracy that values its sovereignty and the will of its people.

Written by Lisa Gable.

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The OPEC Secretariat has announced that eight OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have agreed to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for an additional month, extending the reductions through December 2024. These adjustments, initially announced in November 2023, reflect the group’s ongoing efforts to manage global oil supply.

This decision follows previous voluntary cuts enacted by the same nations in April and November 2023. The eight countries have reiterated their collective dedication to full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, including adhering to the additional production adjustments, which are monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). During its 53rd meeting on April 3, 2024, the JMMC reviewed these commitments, with member countries reaffirming their pledge to offset excess production from January 2024 by September 2025, as outlined in compensation plans submitted to the OPEC Secretariat.

In recent statements, Iraq, along with Russia and Kazakhstan, reaffirmed their commitment to this agreement, including adherence to the voluntary production cuts and the specified compensation schedules for overproduction since January 2024. In August 2024, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman conducted two ministerial consultations with Iraq and Kazakhstan, urging these countries to ensure full compliance and address the excess production volumes accumulated since the beginning of the year. Iraq and Kazakhstan confirmed their intentions to work with secondary sources to detail their plans for aligning production with the agreed targets and adhering to the compensation schedules they submitted to the OPEC Secretariat on August 22.

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The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has published its latest annual report, Review of Maritime Transport 2024, which sheds light on the significant challenges poorer nations face in meeting their shipping needs. According to the report, disruptions fueled by climate change and geopolitical tensions are severely affecting global trade and supply chains, with small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs) being particularly hard hit.

The report emphasizes that developing economies bear a much heavier burden for shipping compared to wealthier nations. UNCTAD’s data shows that the transport work intensity (TWI) per dollar of maritime trade in these economies is double that of developed countries.

Looking ahead, UNCTAD forecasts a 2% increase in maritime trade volume and a 3.5% rise in containerized trade volume in 2024. Between 2025 and 2029, total seaborne trade is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4%, while containerized trade is projected to increase by 2.7%. The growth is being driven by higher demand for key commodities such as bauxite, coal, containerized goods, grain, iron ore, and oil.

In 2023, maritime trade volumes reached 12.3 billion tons, marking a 2.4% increase after a contraction in 2022. However, the report notes that the shipping industry continues to face significant challenges, with complexity, volatility, and uncertainty defining the operational landscape in 2023 and the first half of 2024.

In her introduction to the report, Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of UNCTAD, noted that disruption has become a persistent feature of the global shipping industry. The 2024 edition of the report also marks the final contribution from Jan Hoffmann, the chief of UNCTAD’s logistics branch, who is leaving his post in Geneva to take up a new position with the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

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Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia is growing rapidly but remains concentrated in tertiary industries such as finance, construction, and real estate, particularly in less-developed economies like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. A recent study by Guanie Lim and Chengwei Xu, published on 10 September 2024, suggests that China’s FDI in these sectors may complement, rather than directly compete with, the economic dominance of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the region.

The study highlights that Japanese companies maintain a strong presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand, where they dominate the automotive industry. Although Chinese investment has surged in part due to initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Japan still holds a significant economic advantage. For instance, Japan has heavily invested in the region’s manufacturing sector, with 49.23% of its total FDI directed towards manufacturing. In contrast, Chinese FDI is largely focused on construction and real estate. South Korea and Taiwan have followed similar investment patterns, with 36.69% and 46.19% of their FDI, respectively, allocated to manufacturing, while less than 10% has gone to construction and real estate.

Japanese FDI in construction and real estate accounted for only 1.9% of its total investment in the region. Similarly, South Korea and Taiwan invested only 8.1% and 8.33%, respectively, in these areas.

Despite instances of direct competition, such as China’s victory over Japan in the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail project, broader trends show that Chinese investments are largely concentrated in less-developed markets. The report notes that China’s focus on the tertiary sector minimizes direct competition with its Northeast Asian counterparts, allowing Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to maintain their dominant positions in more developed markets like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.

However, the FDI landscape in Southeast Asia is continuously evolving, with new players emerging and established investors broadening their reach. For policymakers and businesses, understanding these shifting dynamics is crucial, as it provides important insights into the region’s investment trends and opportunities.

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